Public Better Understands Trump Trade Policy Now Than In 2016

Byline: Olson Strategies Staff
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From boardrooms to kitchen tables around the globe, one name often comes up in relation to tariffs and trade—Donald Trump.

Olson Strategies’ Dustin Olson recently weighed in on Newsmax's First Edition with Krysia Lenzo and John Burnett, providing data-driven insights into why Trump’s approach to trade resonates more with Americans today than it did eight years ago and what this could mean for the country moving forward.

Americans on Trump's Trade Strategy:

When Donald Trump first proposed a tariff-centric trade policy during his 2016 campaign, critics doubted its long-term viability. However, as Dustin Olson, lead pollster at American Pulse, observed, public understanding of Trump’s intentions has evolved. Here are some of that data that informed that insight.

According to American Pulse's "Looking Ahead to 2025" survey:

• A plurality of Americans (47%) now support Trump’s strategic use of tariffs in negotiations with foreign leaders, showing a net positive sentiment (+1%).

Complementing this, the Harvard-Harris Poll last week revealed:

• 59% of Americans want a reset in trade policies with China, Mexico, and Canada.
• A majority believe that China (67%) and Mexico (53%) are exploiting the U.S. in current trade agreements.
• 51% think Trump's tariff strategy leads to better outcomes for the U.S.

This marks a stark contrast from the skepticism of 2016, as both citizens and policymakers are realizing the leverage tariffs create in negotiations and addressing America's trade deficit.

Why the Shift in Public Sentiment?

Olson attributes this shift to two factors:

1. Greater Awareness: After witnessing the success of Trump’s first-term trade policies, Americans are more informed about the role tariffs could play in rebalancing trade while the economy booms. Plus, the experience of the pandemic painfully made most Americans aware of the vulnerabilities to China and our supply chain
2. Bipartisan Continuity: Even the Biden administration retained key Trump-era tariffs, showcasing broad agreement across the aisle on the need for strategic trade policies.

“President Trump doesn’t view his tariffs as blanket protectionism,” Olson explains. “He sees them as leverage and persuasion.”

Elements of Trump's Trade Playbook

1. Reshoring Critical Supply Chains

Trump’s tariffs approach incentivizes companies to reshore production, reducing dependency on foreign supply chains. Olson points out the urgency of national security in returning supply chains for industries like pharmaceuticals and advanced electronics. “We can’t afford to have all our essential goods—from drones to pharmaceutical supplies—produced almost exclusively in countries like China.”

2. Prioritizing National Security

Olson highlights the national security dimension of the trade debate. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. faced critical shortages in supplies like ventilators and PPE, underscoring the risks of overreliance on foreign production. Trump’s tariffs aim to mitigate this vulnerability by fostering domestic production capabilities in essential industries.

3. Reducing Wealth Transfer

One of the most compelling arguments for Trump’s tariffs is how they aim to recalibrate wealth imbalances in global trade. According to Olson, “The U.S. sends nearly a trillion dollars of wealth abroad annually in trade imbalances. No country can maintain a strong economic position under those conditions indefinitely.”

The Challenges Ahead

While recent polling has shown a slight advantage in public opinion for Trump’s strategy, it’s not without challenges:

• Market Uncertainty: Tariffs are sparking short-term market volatility. Olson acknowledges that while markets will initially react negatively, long-term benefits could outweigh temporary disruptions, but there is a clock ticking on this called the 2026 midterms.
• Global Pushback: While many nations have come to the negotiating table, some have resisted, creating tensions. However, Trump’s persistence aims to break down these barriers by demonstrating the consequences of unfair trade practices.

Public Opinion and the Road Ahead:

One of Trump's key strengths lies in his ability to shape public opinion. According to the Harvard-Harris poll, 59% of respondents across political affiliations want the U.S. to reevaluate trade agreements with top partners like China and Mexico. Additionally, 60% of independents support a rethinking of trade. Even traditional free-market advocates are keeping an open mind this time based on the experience of Trump's first term.

Olson further explains why timing matters. Implementing these strategies now gives the economy time to adjust before the midterms. The objective is to ensure that these policies pay dividends for both workers and businesses.

Olson lays out that none of this is “happening in a vacuum. We have one of the biggest regulatory rollbacks in our country's history happening right now—and the last time we had anything like this was the first Trump administration…

Plus, this is something that Congress also has to participate in. If we can have the Trump tax cuts made permanent and even add some of these other tax cuts, it is a recipe for a very strong economy. And I do think this is ultimately going to be a roaring economy within the next couple of years.

The biggest thing for Republicans—and why Trump is moving so fast—is that you need to have most of this done earlier than he did in the last administration so that these things are really helping people before the midterms.”

The Bottom Line:

While uncertainties remain, Dustin Olson’s analysis underscores a key point—Trump’s trade strategy reflects a broader shift in public understanding of how tariffs and trade policies affect everyday life.

For both policymakers and citizens backing the America First approach to trade, the message should be clear—rebalance trade to benefit America not only today but for generations to come.

If you’re interested in staying informed about these developments, consider joining American Pulse’s Polling Club for the latest insights on public opinion, market trends, and data-driven strategies.