New Poll: Wilson Leads, Most Undecided in SC Governor’s Race
Byline: Olson Strategies Staff
---
Dustin Olson, Managing Partner at Olson Strategies, joined the Hot Talk Morning Show with Joe Cats to break down early numbers in South Carolina’s 2026 governor’s race. American Pulse’s new statewide survey highlights where Republican primary voters stand—and what issues are starting to shape the campaign landscape.
Wilson Takes Early Lead, But Most Still Undecided
Olson explained that the poll, conducted before Congressman Ralph Norman officially entered the race, captured both declared and likely Republican candidates.
"At that point, with just the announced candidates, Wilson—Attorney General Wilson—was at 33.2%, Lieutenant Governor Evette was at 14.7%, and Kimbrell, a state senator in the Upstate, was at 6.6%, with 45.5% undecided."
When factoring in likely candidates, those numbers shift: Attorney General Wilson leads with 22.6%, followed by Congresswoman Nancy Mace at 17.3%, Congressman Ralph Norman at 9.3%, and the Lieutenant Governor at 8.4%.
"There's a big pie there to carve up, but for the most part, people are undecided at this point. So you have to run a good campaign if you hope to win this and win over those undecideds."
Voters are still evaluating, but they're clearly leaning toward a candidate who looks ready to govern. And right now, more of them say that’s Wilson.
Trump Still Dominates Among GOP Base
A central thread in the race is alignment with former President Donald Trump. Joe Cats pointed out that despite national narratives, Trump remains overwhelmingly popular among likely GOP primary voters in the Palmetto State.
"Donald Trump is still widely favorable amongst Republican-minded voters, with, according to your poll, a 76% approval."
Olson clarified that this figure reflects favorability—not job approval—which may actually understate Trump's strength.
"If we asked for the job approval number, my guess is it would actually be even higher than that."
Endorsements from either Trump or Governor McMaster, who also remains popular, could have major implications for how the primary unfolds. Both Trump and McMaster have favorability ratings well above 50%.
- Trump: +75.7
- McMaster: +57.9
A Methodology Designed for Accuracy
Olson took time to emphasize how the poll was conducted, noting a robust methodology designed to avoid common pitfalls in public polling.
"We did basically about a third, a third, a third... some people will only do a live telephone interview… some people will only take an automated survey... some people will only answer a text message... so by doing it multiple different ways, we get different kinds of people."
He added that oversampling certain demographics—like postgraduate-degree holders—can distort results if not properly balanced.
"People with a postgrad degree think they have a very important opinion... so we watch to make sure we don't have too many needle-nosed professors answering our surveys."
Legalizing Gaming Could Be Gaining Ground
The survey also tested Republican voter sentiment on legalizing gambling—particularly casino gaming and sports betting—as nearby states like North Carolina rake in tax revenue from expanded gambling laws.
"We asked about casino-style gambling... that was at 59.2% support amongst Republican primary voters. On sports betting specifically, it was 52% support."
Olson interpreted the numbers as a sign of what's coming. South Carolina Republicans are supportive of the idea of allowing gambling with specific caveats that improve life for South Carolinians, and since South Carolina is a Republican state, that means it is only a matter of time before the state sees an expansion of gambling.
Polling Club Gives Voters a Say
Several of the poll’s questions—in particular the ones on gambling—were submitted by members of American Pulse’s PollingClub.com, a unique forum that invites the public to suggest the focus, topics, and questions for future surveys.
"Our intention is to give voice to the American people. If you go to PollingClub.com, you can get access to this poll, the New York City poll, the Iran poll...and suggest questions."
More Polling on the Way
Looking ahead, Olson said American Pulse expects to return to the field at least twice more before the 2026 gubernatorial election—depending on public demand.
"If we get a bunch of folks who say, 'I want to know what's going on in this race,' then we will probably be in the field again."
📈 For more polling insights, visit: PollingClub.com