On Newsmax, Olson Unpacks Trump Approval, Polling Sleight-of-Hand, & What’s Next

Byline: Olson Strategies Staff
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President Trump’s approval rating climbs as the markets hit records and a wave of economic optimism sweeps the country. At the center of it all? Policies that the American public wants.

Olson Strategies’ Dustin Olson joined Newsmax’s Wake Up America with Sharla McBride and Mark Lotter for a polling segment to discuss polling trends, economic momentum, and emerging voter movements ahead of 2026. Here’s what we learned, plus new analysis from our team.

Polling Momentum Builds for Trump

Trump’s approval rating has climbed to 53% in the latest Rasmussen poll—a significant boost as voter sentiment shifts. In a month where the U.S. stock market had its best May since 1990, it’s no surprise voters are taking notice.

“Even with uncertainty in the economy, with the ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ not having been passed by the Senate yet or the parade of trade deals happening,” Olson said. “People feel optimistic.” 

Olson also explained discrepancies in poll averages, pointing to how polls of ‘Likely Voters’ show stronger approval for Trump compared to broader surveys of adults. It’s a reminder that methodology matters.

For example, President Trump's Job Approval in the RCP Average has ticked up, but the results of the individual polls within the average vary widely based on the pollster’s sample.

But here’s the real story: not all polls are created equal.

This breakdown illustrates how Trump’s approval numbers vary significantly depending on the sample

• Polls of Likely Voters—used by real pollsters like American Pulse—have Trump between +7 and +11.
• Registered Voter polls show him tied and -5.
• But the worst scores—Trump -13 to -8—come from dirt-cheap online panels of just “Adults,” including non-voters. These headline-chasers quietly dropped their voter screens after the election and now run cut-rate polls that miss the actual electorate. It’s a classic case of Sample Sleight-of-Hand—half the cost, twice the spin.

As Olson puts it, “Unlike these headline chasers, the best pollsters are still taking measures to account for Non-Response Bias of hard-to-get Trump supporters and non-college, rural, or low-income voters.”

Economic Certainty Hangs in the Balance

While many feel good about the economy, major uncertainty remains. If the One Big Beautiful Bill fails, it could result in “the largest tax hike in American history,” Olson warned.

“These are the kinds of things that make businesses and investors skittish,” he added. But when passed, “it’s Katie bar the door.” The economic surge could be massive and politically consequential for Republicans heading into 2026.

Health, Family, and the Rise of the MAHA Movement

Beyond inflation and jobs, voters are also turning to issues of health and food security. Olson highlighted growing support among parents—particularly the “MAHA moms” inspired by Secretary Kennedy’s food safety push.

“These are generational issues,” Olson said. “This administration is tackling big ideas—and that inspires people.”

What the Generic Ballot Still Tells Us

Despite Republican momentum in presidential approval, the generic congressional ballot still shows Democrats leading by 2.5 points. That’s actually low for this point in the election cycle, as polling showed Democrats way ahead in 4 of the last 5 election cycles and ahead in all of them—but it’s a reminder the road to 2026 is far from guaranteed.

“There are a lot of things that Republicans have to get past,” Olson said. “For example, Medicaid is an issue that they need to be able to address and not be timid about it.”

With a strong economy, bold policy ideas, and new voter energy on their side, Republicans may have the wind at their backs and either defy the historic trend of the party in the White House usually losing in the midterms or at least blunt that trend—if they can capitalize on it.