Key 2025 Off-Year Elections in Virginia
Byline: Olson Strategies Staff
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Dustin Olson, Managing Partner at Olson Strategies, joined Newsmax’s Todd Starnes Show to discuss key 2025 off-year elections in New York City, New Jersey, Virginia, and California. Olson broke down how these pivotal contests are shaping up—and why this year’s races are defying the usual trends.
Off-Year Elections: Breaking the Pattern
Olson began by explaining that 2025’s off-year elections are not following the familiar political pattern, where the party outside the White House typically performs better.
“Typically, in off-year elections, the party outside the White House performs better. You would expect in places like New York City and New Jersey and Virginia, all blue areas, that you would have the Democrats doing really well, but we aren't seeing that.”
New York City: Mamdani Leads, But Not Popular
Discussing the New York City mayoral race, Olson said that while Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani remains the frontrunner, his support is far from enthusiastic.
“We have a majority of people talking about how they can stop the Democratic nominee. Now, Mamdani is likely going to win, but he’s not actually very popular.”
Olson noted that American Pulse polling from August indicated there were pathways to challenge Mamdani’s dominance, but that opportunity appears to have closed as candidates failed to target Mamdani's weakest points in their advertising.
Virginia: A Blue State Turning Purple
Olson also addressed the increasingly competitive environment in Virginia.
“Well, the state has definitely become more blue and maybe purple. But it is true. The House of Delegates has swung in something like three of the four last election cycles."
Olson also pointed to the recent Special Session that was called in Virginia, which removed many Republicans from the campaign trail, hinting that one of the intentions is to prevent Republican delegates in competitive races, as well as gubernatorial candidate Winsome Earle-Sears, who oversees the State Senate as Lt. Governor, from spending 100% of their time on the campaign trail.
"It's amazing to see what they're doing because they're also taking all the Republican delegates who are in competitive races temporarily off the field.”
California: Newsom’s Gerrymandering Gambit
Olson discussed how the Virginia Special Session on Redistricting was a desperate play to recreate some of the GOTV motivation that Governor Gavin Newsom’s controversial Proposition 50 gerrymandering effort is having in California.
“There seems to be some level of desperation we've seen in California with Prop 50. That's Gavin Newsom's gerrymandering initiative that started off not that strong, but now the yes side of that vote is over 50% and trending towards 60% which means that it's likely going to pass at this point.”
Olson argued that such moves reveal the defensive posture of Democrat leadership even in their most secure strongholds, as voter confidence continues to erode.
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