Dustin Olson Challenges Credibility of New Trump Polls on Newsmax

Byline: Olson Strategies Staff
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Dustin Olson, Managing Partner at Olson Strategies, joined Newsmax’s Wake Up America to weigh in on the latest polls showing shifts among women voters, and to break down why headline numbers don’t always match the true political landscape.

Poll Credibility Under Scrutiny

Olson questioned the reliability of a recent survey showing a surge in Trump’s support among women, arguing that both the old and new polls had flaws.

"Well, I may have an unpopular view here, I don't think the previous poll was all that credible, and I don't think the new poll's all that credible."

The Problem with Internet Polling

He explained that many recent polls are conducted 100% through online panels where all participants are compensated to fill out polls—something he says skews the results.

"This is one of those many internet polls where 100% of the people were compensated to participate."

Consistent Support Among Women

Olson pointed out that in reality his own data has shown Trump’s support with women holding steady for months.

"Over the last six months, his support with women has been remarkably steady, actually, within less than a percent change, and it's been in the mid-40s."

The cheap internet poll showed very low support in the mid-30s, increase to support in the high-30s.

Sample “Sleight of Hand” in Approval Ratings

According to Olson, the way pollsters sample respondents can dramatically change the reported approval ratings.

"If you watch the job approval numbers in any of the aggregate poll trackers, like Real Clear Politics, there’s what I call a ‘Sample Sleight of Hand’ going on. You have a lot of these news media internet polls being included that are only sampling adults, they’re not doing ‘likely voters' or ‘registered voters,’ and there’s a difference… the ‘adult-only polls’ are usually negative by about 12 points, whereas the ‘likely voters’ actually have Trump’s job approval by plus one."

There are several reasons pollsters might choose to poll adults rather than voters in a media poll: one reason is that it is much cheaper, and another is that if you want an outcome that is unfavorable for a Republican, you are almost guaranteed to get that with an adults-only poll. There is no requirement that those included even have to be U.S. citizens.

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